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Target Threat Analysis - By Darrek "Gecko6" Lisle

Introduction
Well I had such a positive response on my first attempt at being a writer that I have decided to follow up with a wake up call. Most virtual pilots are guilty of littering the landscape with Virtual USAF hardware and think nothing of it. I am guilty of this myself. I get up stretch and mumble profanity under my breath cussing out that SA-7 solder that got a lucky hit!

The question is not if he was lucky. The question should be " Did I plan my route correctly and why didn't I realize a SA-7 would probably be there?"

I know what some of you are thinking right now, "It is just a game! Dude get a life." Well how can you argue with that? First of all it is not a game. This is my escape to a world that I was unable to make for myself. I treat it as if I was really there. The decisions that I make will either let me grow as a VP or make me go postal on my monitor due to the ADA unit separating me from my fuselage.

Read on with the idea that I am keeping it strait forward and in an easy to read format.

Threat
Threat can be broken down into 3 primary roles.

1. Active seeking
2. Reactive seeking
3. Gravity seeking

Active seeking
Believe it or not but active seeking defenses are not the most deadly. If fact they are pretty much dumb. I am referring to Radar Guided Missiles. This is a technology that has been around since the beginning. The basis behind it is pretty simple.

Shoot missile in the air in general direction of target
Use a radar dish to paint the target (illuminate) so the missile can see it and move to hit it.

To defeat said missile, just stay low. Poke out the Eyeball (radar) with your harms.


Reactive seeking
Now we are in the realm of the SA-7 guys. No need to give away your position until after the missile is away. Always ask yourself "Where would I place my Infantry guys?" I have survived up to 4 SA-7 hits in the past, and I was mad at myself for letting them take out my ability to engage my objective by taking out my Hud and avionics.

Gravity seeking
This is where the Flak and direct fire weapons come into play. In school I learned about a rule stating "what goes up must come down." This goes for full metal jackets and tracers. I cannot speak for F4 but you are in as much danger leaving the target as you were coming in. Bullets fly upwards for quite some time, then fall back to earth. Picture a mushroom shape and you are flying through it. Falcon 4 is a great Sim but I have no knowledge if they modeled the trajectory of each round to see if it hits after the apex .

Recon
I have come up with a simple, easy to remember acronym to help you analyze the threat on the objective.

Surface to Air Missiles
Low altitude threats
Unknown capabilities
TARCAP Patrols


This may be offensive but you have to admit it is very easy to remember.

Surface to Air Missiles
SAMS are a real pain when they connect center mass. Most sams are useless below the radar envelope. They are limited to the launcher and the agility of it missile. Most times you can counter them using terrain, chaff, defensive BFMs. Don't get me wrong I cannot defeat every missile that comes my way. However SAMS are nice enough to announce the fact that there coming after you.

SAMs home court is between 1000' - 10,000 or 10,000 -22,500 for the most part.


Low altitude threats
The DPRK finds the nastiest, cheating, low life scum of the earth and issue them SA-7s. The not so bad get a ZSU position. In my past article I advised pilots to avoid certain areas on your ingress and egress for this reason. They place the units anywhere that might be a possible flight path. One mission I flew took me around a good-sized mountain. I looked right to see my clearance. I get a smoke trail heading at me almost perpendicular to my AC. The impact was enough to close my 20' distance between my AC and the mountain turning me into a dirt dart on the side of the mountain.

Unknown capabilities
Not much to explain here, always plug this into your formula.

TARCAP Patrols
The enemy is not stupid, they know what targets we are interested in. When I say TARCAPS I mean any AC that is in the area meaning to do you harm. If you see several flights of enemy Migs and you have no CAP. Then maybe you might want to pass on that mission.

Formula
I have a simple formula that I use to rate the threat level for the target.
S = 4 pts
L = 3 pts
U = ?
T = 2 pts


Every instance of enemy batteries I assign the point value. Add up the total and divide by 4. This will give you the average threat level. Use the Unknown to decide if you can handle it or pass it on.

1 Battery of SA-2s = 4
2 Battalions of ZSU-57-2 = 6
Unknown number of IR
1 Near by Airbase = 2

12 / 4 = 3

Level 4 = VERY HIGH
Level 3 = HIGH
Level 2 = LOW

Any target that has a rating of HIGH or above is almost guaranteed to have SA-7s in the area.

Now that I have a clearer picture of the Threat I can make educated guesses on my attack profiles, routes, and load-outs.

This is a tool and not gospel so use it as you see fit.

Emissions

Enemy
Not everything that the enemy has emits a signal alerting you of there presence. Be very aware of that! Your RWR is nice to have but do not trust it with your life. Search radar's, Tracking radars, and ATC radar's are all your enemy. Just because you are picking up a search radar signal don't think you are safe from Sams. Sam launchers are networked! Any radar can guide a missile as far as you are concerned. This is tough due to F4 not acknowledging search radar signatures.

Friendly
It is nice to fly low and fast in CCRP mode, you might as well fly with your landing lights on! It will only take one EWR or EW rigs to vector fighter to your area. Get into the habit of flying with radar snuffed. This is nerve racking and it is like going to school and forgetting to wear pants. Let your escort do the TWS scans and draw attention to them. You are there to get steel on target, not to become an ACE.


Counter Measures
Chaff and flares are your best friends. Now that has been said, realize that they are worthless as the same time.

Chaff is used to create a bigger more inviting target for the guidance radar to home in on. Most of the time it only works to limited effect.

Flares on the outer hand are more effective in their role. IR guided missiles are more susceptible to this type of decoy.

I am not going into different types of evasion methods and practices. I just wanted to inform you briefly to help you in the evaluation process. I will share my SOP for reference.

I drop 3 in succession at a 2-second interval. During my pop-up, and as I turn to my egress heading after release. Again just before I duck down behind the nearest terrain feature.

Reaction
There is a simple yet very true statement I used a lot in the Army.

"Stay Alert! Stay Alive!"

You can take the information I have given and use what you wish to better plan you attacks. Remember it takes a better pilot to pass on a target and live, than to die trying.

Please comment on this article in the Article Feedback Forum



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